"Osama Is at Hand," or, A Lesson in History
Makes me feel old that so few people I talk with remember this, but in 1972 (on the verge of a landslide victory, no less), Richard Nixon was sufficiently worried about his main Achilles heel, the Vietnam war, to trot out Henry Kissinger with a late-night "emergency" press conference to announce that "peace is at hand." In point of fact, nothing substantial had changed in the peace negotiations; this was the effort of a paranoid politician to go to any lengths to assure his victory (the Watergate break-in that ultimately cost him his presidency had not yielded much, in terms of information for the Republicans nor in terms of scandal yet reaching the highest levels).
Back in those days, scaring us into submission didn't work. (Today, the disruptions of 1968--the assassination of a candidate on the campaign trail; the riots in Chicago--and 1972--the shooting of another candidate--would probably result in even more draconian security measures than we have now. I doubt they would have been tolerated then, because fear as a political tool had yet to be exploited.) So instead, in order to assure its victory, the Secretary of State, who was held in high regard within and outside his own party, was deployed to political ends.
Those who don't remember history are doomed to get sucker-punched by those who do.
I am on record predicting that the October surprise will be Osama's corpse (with a dramatic tale attached), miraculously appearing close enough to the election that any efforts to investigate whether (a) it's really Bin Laden, (b) how long he's been dead, (c) how long the White House might have known his whereabouts, will not have time to come to fruition before the election.
But enough other people are saying something similar to perhaps raise doubts in the public mind, should this occur. Perhaps instead the White House will take a lesson from the Nixon White House. They do, after all, also have a Secretary of State, in Colin Powell, who is seen as diverging some from the White House. They know the failure to find Osama, after initially claiming it as a key goal in their proclaimed "war on terrorism" is a potential weakness for Bush. (You can't trade on fear as your political currency, then not at least pretend to be protecting people against what people are being reminded constantly to fear.)
So, I will change my prediction. (Yup, flip-flopper: that's me.) I predict Colin Powell will be trotted out--because he is more credible than Bush, Cheney, Rice, Rumsfeld, et al.--to announce something to the effect that "we have Osama in our grasp." The implication will be made plainly--maybe even explicitly--that changing administrations will destroy the U.S.'s ability to catch Osama.
They can do this without Colin Powell, of course. But everyone knows he has had his differences with Bush and his cronies, and that he will not be around in the second term. So Powell has a level of credibility that the rest of the cabal lack. He has already sunk his future as a potential nominee for President or Vice President on the Republican ticket. I wonder whether he will find enough shreds of his tattered integrity to refuse to play this game.
So, look forward to the announcement that "Osama is at hand." And start setting down your bets as to whether it will be Powell or someone else making it.
Back in those days, scaring us into submission didn't work. (Today, the disruptions of 1968--the assassination of a candidate on the campaign trail; the riots in Chicago--and 1972--the shooting of another candidate--would probably result in even more draconian security measures than we have now. I doubt they would have been tolerated then, because fear as a political tool had yet to be exploited.) So instead, in order to assure its victory, the Secretary of State, who was held in high regard within and outside his own party, was deployed to political ends.
Those who don't remember history are doomed to get sucker-punched by those who do.
I am on record predicting that the October surprise will be Osama's corpse (with a dramatic tale attached), miraculously appearing close enough to the election that any efforts to investigate whether (a) it's really Bin Laden, (b) how long he's been dead, (c) how long the White House might have known his whereabouts, will not have time to come to fruition before the election.
But enough other people are saying something similar to perhaps raise doubts in the public mind, should this occur. Perhaps instead the White House will take a lesson from the Nixon White House. They do, after all, also have a Secretary of State, in Colin Powell, who is seen as diverging some from the White House. They know the failure to find Osama, after initially claiming it as a key goal in their proclaimed "war on terrorism" is a potential weakness for Bush. (You can't trade on fear as your political currency, then not at least pretend to be protecting people against what people are being reminded constantly to fear.)
So, I will change my prediction. (Yup, flip-flopper: that's me.) I predict Colin Powell will be trotted out--because he is more credible than Bush, Cheney, Rice, Rumsfeld, et al.--to announce something to the effect that "we have Osama in our grasp." The implication will be made plainly--maybe even explicitly--that changing administrations will destroy the U.S.'s ability to catch Osama.
They can do this without Colin Powell, of course. But everyone knows he has had his differences with Bush and his cronies, and that he will not be around in the second term. So Powell has a level of credibility that the rest of the cabal lack. He has already sunk his future as a potential nominee for President or Vice President on the Republican ticket. I wonder whether he will find enough shreds of his tattered integrity to refuse to play this game.
So, look forward to the announcement that "Osama is at hand." And start setting down your bets as to whether it will be Powell or someone else making it.
posted by Maines at 1:37 PM
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